next up previous
Next: Other Important Aspects Of Up: InaccuraciesInconsistencies And Shifting Previous: InaccuraciesInconsistencies And Shifting

Implications Of The Assumption:
Mean Year Vs. 4 Out Of 5 Years

With the shifting positions of WAPDA in respect of criterion for water availability from 4 out of 5 years (80% probability) to average year (50% probability), it is necessary to understand precisely the concept and the implication of these criteria. It may be stated that the storage dams already constructed in Pakistan and the proposed Kalabagh Dam are designed to store water from the flow available during a particular year after meeting the current requirements and the balance water of high floods is spilled over in to the sea. This water which escapes to sea is not available for use in subsequent years, in the absence of a carry over dam which can store the surplus flow of high flood years for subsequent use. Under the circumstances it must be clearly understood that if the criterion of mean year availability is adopted, water available will be less than this figure for 50% of the time. Is it practicable to conceive a huge project of storage dam with over Rs. 250 billiongif investment, knowing that water may not be available for storage for 50% of the time? How can such a project be feasible and economically viable?



Nadeem Jamali
Fri Jun 27 09:21:13 EDT 1997