Conclusions

1. WAPDA has made desperate but vain attempts to prop up the falling edifice of Kalabagh. To this end, they have:-
   • exaggerated the mean year water availability by a huge 22.4 MAF by making fantastic assumptions that:
     1. Storage of 6.1 MAF in Kalabagh Dam will salvage system losses by 7 MAF!
     2. 4 MAF of water will be generated in the catchment of eastern rivers in Pakistan above rim stations.

   • Deviated from their own method of computations just to somehow increase the figure of water availability, knowing fully well that for design of large projects, it is always better to err on the safe side, and apply some factor of safety.
   • Arbitrarily changed their own 1987 criterion of water availability of 4 out of 5 years to mean/average year, though the 1987 criterion was also endorsed by President Farooq Ahmed Khan Leghari when he was Minister for Water and Power in 1990.
   • Tried to link the Kalabagh Dam with silting of present reservoirs. WAPDA do not want to increase the water level in Mangla dam, which can be done without any capital investment, but instead they want to construct Kalabagh Dam at the cost of Rs. 250 billion!
   • Attempted to convey the impression that Kalabagh Dam is the only feasible project for storage and hydel power generation, and that it is ready for implementation. To make Kalabagh look indispensable, WAPDA has put the promising run of the river projects in cold storage and taken no serious steps to utilize huge coal reserves of Thar for power generation.

2. Water for storage is available only in very high flood years when it is in excess of Kharif needs and requirements of present storages. The WAPDA data shows that such high floods have occurred only in 12 out of 72 years. It is possible to store this water only by construction of carry over dam. Highest Kharif flows have occurred in 1959-60 (154.74 MAF) and in 1950-51 (151.28 MAF). In such years as much as 25 to 30 MAF is available which can not be stored in a dam like Kalabagh. Some preliminary investigations carried out earlier indicate the availability of a site for carry over dam at Skardu. Possibly Bhasha can also be re-designed as a carry over dam, though its capacity may not be as much as Skardu. The advantages of a carry over dam are:-
   1. It will store every drop of surplus water available during very high flood years for use in subsequent years.
   2. The water stored in a carry over dam can be released to supplement the requirements of the existing storages in the years of low flows.
   3. It can counter the effect of silting of existing down stream storage and also check further silting of the reservoir thus increasing its life.
   4. It can be very effective for flood control, because it can impound all excess flood waters, whereas existing storages are not so effective for flood control because of their limited capacity and they are almost full when flood water comes.

3. There is serious deterioration in the ecological conditions in the deltaic region, due to a continuous increase in water use/ commitments. Statistics show that even the quantity of 10 MAF provisionally earmarked in the Water Accord of 1991 is not available for 48 out of 72 years. It is not possible to improve this situation by reducing the water allocations of existing projects or by leaving existing reservoirs unfilled. However, to prevent complete devastation, future carry over storages should be planned so that only the river flows in excess of present needs for existing projects and storages, and allowing 300,000 cusecs for out flow to sea whenever available, will be impounded.
4. The proposed Kalabagh Dam poses great risk to the fertile Peshawar valley and Nowshera town. The quality of impounded water will also be polluted by salinity due to proximity of Khewra and Kohat salt formations.
5. The alternatives to Kalabagh Dam are:
   1. a carry over dam for storage of every drop of surplus water in high flood years.
   2. raising water level in Mangla dam to offset the effect of silting.
   3. launching of run of the river hydel projects like Dasu and Bunji etc.
   4. use of Thar coal for generation. The Minister of Water and Power has said that he will announce Power Policy in the month of July, 1997. It is suggested that run of the river hydel projects and coal based power generation should be hall marks of this policy.

6. It is clearly established that the Kalabagh Dam project does not satisfy even the basic conditions of viability. If the dam is constructed inspite of this position, it will stand high and dry for most of the years as a monument of defective planning and wasteful expenditure. Under these circumstances, we urge upon the decision makers: ``Look Before You Leap''.